This is really interesting and a little hard to believe. A research organization has published a report that actually does spell bad news for Democrats but are they missing something?
Lake Research Partners did a study in which they try to figure out voting patterns and how that will affect the 2018 mid-term elections. Their results claim that 40 million people who voted in the 2016 elections won’t be voting in the 2018 elections. Now, it’s true that presidential elections always bring out more voters but is there really that big of a drop off? From The Hill:
The study, conducted by the Washington-based research firm Lake Research Partners and released by The Voter Participation Center, found that among the 40 million Americans expected not to vote in 2018, nearly two-thirds are considered part of the “Rising American Electorate” — a block consisting of millennials, unmarried women and people of color, who account for more than half of the country’s eligible voters.
Among those not considered part of the group, some 14.4 million fewer will take part in the 2018 elections, the study found.
Millennials, which the report defines as people between the ages of 18 and 34, will see the biggest decline in voter participation, with 17.2 million fewer people casting ballots.
Likewise, unmarried women are set to see a significant drop off in turnout, with 11.1 million fewer people voting in 2018 than in 2016.
They’ve even been able to boil down their results based on state:
Among the states projected to be the hardest hit by dwindling voter turnouts of the group are Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia. That drop off, Lake Research President Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, said, could have a heavy impact on some races.
They are using comparative data from 2012 – 2016 in order to predict the electorate in 2018 but they also used drop-off data over multiple elections:
Drop-off: Refers to the loss of voters from 2016 to 2018. The average of turnout in 2006, 2010, and 2014 was applied to 2018 population estimates to calculate 2018 turnout. Percentage drop-off is the difference between 2016 and 2018 turnout as a percentage of 2016 turnout. The number drop-off is that percentage of the 2016 electorate.
Where they really believe there will be a difference is in the Rising American Electorate as pictured below:
This is pretty interesting information and the entire report is worth a read, they provide regional and state data statistics and assumptions as well.
Given then angst of Democrats and their absolute outrageous behavior since the day after the election, it seems they’d be able to get at least their base pumped up to vote. Of course, their base alone won’t help them win in 2018.